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Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo

INTEC develops the predictive and risk management model of the COVID-19

The project is designed with the support of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and will allow a daily measurement of the virus contagion curve to feed back epidemiological control public policies.

SANTO DOMINGO. - The Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC) develops, together with Interamerican Development Bank (IDB), a predictive model and risk management . COVID-19 en Dominican Republic which will measure the trends of the incidence curve daily (contagion) and national contagion networks (by geographic instances) to provide feedback on public epidemiological control policies.

The initiative was presented during the virtual international symposium "Scientific research and solutions in times of crisis COVID-19 and beyond: food security, health, education, environment and economy", organized by the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology ( MESCyT).

The presentation was given by the research professor at INTEC Renato González, project leader and data science specialist, who explained that the proposal is a dynamic situational model that contains three predictive and risk management components of COVID-19.

The specialist specified that with the conjugation of Machine Learning y Network Analysis A micro-predictive model was designed to detect outbreaks and quantify their individual impact on the geographically located population (family nucleus, neighborhood or urban and rural sector, work centers, shopping centers, etc.) and demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental of the affected family nuclei throughout the national territory.

Likewise, the project contemplates the incorporation of a sample design model to determine the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population and identify existing positive cases and their potential incidence (susceptibility) through a field epidemiology study, with the aim of carrying out the determination of antibodies against the virus (serological tests) combined with the PCR tests to detect positive cases.

The professor mentioned that they will use databases from the Social Security, the Single System of Beneficiaries (SIUBEN), the Civil, Demographic and Cartographic Registry and the National Statistics Office (ONE), among others, to create a representative sample of the Dominican population by geographic areas (provinces, municipalities, neighborhoods, residential) high-risk groups (with comorbidities: hypertension, diabetes, cancer, asthma), age and vulnerable groups according to the dimensions of inequality: sex, education level, socioeconomic level , area of ​​residence).

El research team the project is also made up of teachers Boanerges Domínguez y Felipe Llaugel, experts in data science, biostatistics and predictive models, and doctors Manuel Colomé y Eladio Pérez as technical specialists in epidemiology.

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