Experts say that year 2020 will be little positive in economic terms and there will be political instability

SANTO DOMINGO. –Republic Republic will have a 2020 year little positive in economic terms, because it will be immersed in electoral processes, and what will it be scenario of political instability fruit of the division of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) and the lack of confidence of the population in the political parties, predicted the economist Bernardo Vega and sociologist and political scientist Rosario Espinal.

By participating in the last INTEC Dialogue for Action (DAY), together with the sociologist and newspaper director Santiago's Information, Enmanuel Castillo, with the theme "Dominican Republic: balance sheet and political, economic and social perspectives for the 2020”, The three experts concluded that the Dominican State is corrupt, clientele and welfare.

X-ray of the Dominican economy in 2019

Vega, in charge of analyzing the economic aspects, made a retrospective to the year 2019, in which he stressed that the growth of the economy in this year was lower than in previous years, between an 4 and an 5%, which implies that the impact About employment was not so positive.

In the activity that took place in the Julio Ravelo de la Fuente room, of Instituto Tecnológico de Santo DomingoHe said that inflation remained within the limit set by the Central Bank (4% maximum), and stressed that the 2019 ends with a foreign exchange problem that will not allow achieving the objective set by the Ministry of Finance that the exchange rate would end in 53.24, which implies a devaluation of 5%.

He pointed out that there are waiting lists of currencies in the banks, said that several stock exchanges and the Pension Fund Associations are acquiring currencies to dollarize, because the electoral uncertainty is affecting the exchange rate.

He indicated that during the 2019 the tourism fell by about 400 million and exports grew by only 2%, aspect that qualified as very negative. He also stressed that, in net terms, remittances are the largest source of foreign exchange in the country.

The economist explained that the fiscal deficit has increased for two primary reasons: the quasi fiscal deficit of the Central Bank, product of the money lent to the Treasury when the Baninter Bank crisis, and the power distributors They do not charge 27% of what they bill. He said that part of the fiscal deficit is hidden through the operations of the Reserve Bank.

 2020 economic perspectives

Bernardo Vega said that during the 2020 the economy will be impacted by four potential electoral processes: congressional and municipal elections, presidential elections, a possible second round and the United States elections.

He pointed out that there will be two economic stages, until and after election day, with different behaviors. He questioned what is going to be done with the coal-fired power plants of Punta Catalina and said that every day there is more pressure to remain as a state for the political cost of selling half of the shares in the middle of an electoral process.

“An important impact is that the quota system expires under DR-Cafta so that rice, beans and pigs will be able to enter tax free which will have a terrible impact on Dominican agricultural production and it is difficult to think that it can negotiate, ”he said. Vega said that Haiti is a time bomb that affects Dominican exports and said that after the elections it is urgent to negotiate the electricity and fiscal pact.

Political context: how do we end the 2019 and what to expect for the 2020?

The sociologist and political scientist Rosario Espinal explained that the Dominican Republic has today a match system, Which has been beaten by the leaders themselves of political parties, so the political stability for the 2020 is not predicted. The divisions make the traditional political parties weakened and, on the other hand, a fragmentation in the party system is perceived.

He said that he is waiting for the electoral effect of the Dominican Liberation Party division, dominant in all elections since 2004.

He said that according to the data of the Barometer of the Americas, Dominicans show more tolerance than support for the party system. On the other hand, he stressed that confidence in elections is extremely low and support for democracy remains at 50%.

Espinal stressed that Dominicans identify much more to the left, especially those who do not identify with any party or who recognize themselves as members of the Modern Revolutionary Party, although he stressed that the country has a very active ultra right and a population with less participation in protests

Balance of social movements

The director of the newspaper La Información, Enmanuel Castillo, stressed that the country is experiencing a process of uncertainty at the political level in which clientelism prevails. "Politics has become a business opportunity, it is not a policy as a development platform," he said.

He pointed out that the criterion of money becomes the principle of legitimization of power, leaving democracy in the background, since it is important to have resources to buy wills and votes that will support political power.

The past rector of INTEC and coordinator of the INTEC Dialogue for Action, Rafael Toribio, said that we are facing the last days of 2019 and the start of 2020, so the time was necessary for analyze the national happening, the situations we have faced and that we will have to face in the coming year, with Dominican democracy in perspective.

INTEC organizes the DIA with the objective of consolidating a space for debate and aimed at identifying solution proposals on relevant issues in all areas of national reality, which is carried out in a plural way and with an impact on the academic, socioeconomic and politics.