Study raises model to invest in prevention of Dengue
SANTO DOMINGO.- A study of Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC) proposes a new method for the authorities of Public Health plan the investment in prevention of dengue in the country, which is based on a mathematical model.
On the research "Dynamic inefficiency in the prevention of dengue virus: the case of the Dominican Republic", The economists Carlos Cassó Domínguez and José Manuel Mota Aquino, graduates of INTEC, maintain that the dengue prevention policy of the Ministry of Public Health, which is based on recommendations of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), is" inefficient "Since it consists of first identifying epidemic outbreaks and then eliminating adult mosquitoes by fumigation and eradicating breeding sites in awareness campaigns.
In this sense, the research proposes that investment in the prevention of dengue is anticipated to the outbreaks and that in its planning a mathematical model that includes rainfall information is used, that is, that the investment is directly associated with the growth rate of the mosquito population and, therefore, the amount of rainfall.
"To control the mosquito that transmits dengue, most of the spending on prevention must be done at the beginning of the year when its population is reduced and thus prevent its expansion, caused by the April-May rains, from becoming an epidemic", specifies the study funded by the INTEC Research Division.
The work carried out by the researchers proposes a new model that estimates the level of optimal spending on prevention for an individual facing a population of mosquitoes that transmit dengue, and takes into account variables such as the individual's income, the cost of the medical treatment in case of being infected, cost of prevention spending, virus survival rate, natural growth rate of the mosquito transmitter, among others.
It is an empirical research with qualitative results. The researchers pointed out that in the future they intend to identify the exact amount of this investment for the Dominican case and develop analysis by provinces, which will depend on the available data.
The findings of the study are included in the most recent issue of the scientific journal "Science and Society" of the INTEC, a quarterly scientific publication of the university that arrived at 2015 at their 40 years.
In 2014 in the country 42 deaths by dengue were registered. According to unofficial figures published in the media, 8 has reported more than 1,000 cases and 117 deaths due to the disease so far in the 2015.