INTEC economist says exports lose momentum in 2019
SANTO DOMINGO. -The Dominican exports have returned to the path of a slow growth, according to data of their performance during the first five months of the year, analyzed in the fourth Panorama of Foreign Trade of the Dominican Observatory of International Trade (ODCI), assigned to the Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC).
The report indicates that, according to the records of the General Directorate of Customs (DGA), between January-May of 2019 the total value exported was US $ 2,390 million, only one 3.2% more than what was registered in the same period of 2018. The sector that reflected lower growth free zones, with only one 1.5%.
In contrast, the products that showed more dynamism in its sales abroad were the rodswhose exports grew by almost US $ 45 million; the fruits in US $ 35.4 million; the cigarettes in US $ 31.7 million; garments US $ 27.7 million point and pharmaceutical products US $ 19 million.
In this sense, the ODCI, made up of nine institutions and led by Pavel Isa Contreras, economist and research professor at INTEC, indicates that the markets that received the most products were the United States, Canada and China.
However, other products and markets declined. The products that registered reductions in exports were: metal ores, in particular ferronickel; garments that are not knitted, footwear, alcoholic beverages and vegetable and fruit preparations.
In addition, the report indicates that exports to India, Taiwan, Puerto Rico and several countries in South America and South Africa also showed less dynamism.
Loss in the tourism sector
The income from tourism also they registered a decrease in its growth. Until May, the total number of tourists (non-resident foreigners) who arrived in the country was little more than 2,604,000, an 3.5% more than the 2,517,000 tourists that arrived between January and May of 2018. However, that growth was lower than the 4.8% registered between January - May of 2018, with respect to 2017.
The imports they have also lost speed. Between January and May of this year they grew by 5.4% compared to 11.5% in the same period of 2018. Domestic imports, which exclude free zones, grew by 6.1%, less than half of the 13.3% registered in 2018, and those of free zones saw their rate decline to almost half of last year, from 4.9% to 2.7 %. The lower growth occurred despite the fact that in the first quarter oil imports grew by 7.4%.
These tendencies, indicates the ODCI, can suppose a important challenge for the country in the near future, because they show a decrease in growth rate of foreign exchange earnings, a critical element for growth.
The report indicates that the challenge may be particularly difficult because a reduction in the arrival of tourists is expected in the third quarter of the year, due to the bad publicity that the country recently received as a tourist destination. Although in the short term there is little room to prepare to respond to these risks, the situation points, again, according to the ODCI, to the need to boost exports and promote productivity and agricultural and industrial competitiveness, an agenda that does not have alternatives.
The fourth Panorama of Foreign Trade report also publishes an article of Iván Gatón, expert in international relations, on the geopolitical context of the trade war between the United States and China, and an article of Iván Ogando, director of FLACSO-Dominican Republic, on the Implications for the Brexit country and the new agreement between the United Kingdom and the Caribbean countries.
About the Dominican Observatory of International Trade
The ODCI is a permanent academic-institutional space for research, capacity building, service provision and strategic communication on issues related to foreign trade and its socioeconomic, national and regional impacts.
It is integrated by business associations such as the National Council of Private Enterprise (CONEP), the Association of Industries of the Dominican Republic (AIRD), the Dominican Association of Free Zones (ADOZONA) and the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAMDR).
In addition, it is made up of public institutions linked to international trade, such as the General Directorate of Customs (DGA), the Directorate of Administration and Commercial Treaties (DICOEX) of the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and MiPyME (MICM) and the National Council of Free Trade Zones (CNZFE), and INTEC, as an academic counterpart.
link: Foreign Trade Panorama